US DATA
The NFIB's Jobs Report for January was mixed but overall showed no reversal in the longer-term trend of moderating labor market conditions for small businesses.
- The biggest change in the major categories was in compensation plans, which dropped 4 points to a 5-month low 20% (net). That said, actual compensation changes were up 4pp to a -7-month high 33%, paring part of a long downtrend, so the signal was a little mixed here - but overall, compensation remains in a downtrend that started in early 2022.
- Hiring plans dipped 1pp to 18% (net), though these appear to have taken a step-change higher since just before the November 2024 US election (had been hovering between 11-15 in the 10 months to October 2024).
- Job openings were flat at (35%), around the levels seen beginning in September 2024. That's below the 40-50% levels at peak labor market tightness in 2022-23, but consistent with pre-pandemic readings. And the percent unable to fill positions was unchanged at 35%, in roughly the same range of recent months.
- Per the report, "Small business owners are certainly feeling hopeful about the direction of the economy, However, employment remains a top concern as Main Street owners continue to face challenges in finding qualified employees to fill their open positions."
- The full NFIB small business report, which also includes these jobs figures, is out Tue Feb 11.
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