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Small HICP Deceleration to 8.4% Masks Jump in Core

ITALY DATA
MNI (London)

ITALY JUL FLASH HICP -1.1% M/M (FCST -0.9%); JUN +1.2% M/M

ITALY JUL FLASH HICP +8.4% Y/Y (FCST 8.8%); JUN +8.5% Y/Y

ITALY JUL FLASH HICP CORE +4.3% Y/Y; JUN +4.0% Y/Y

  • Italian inflation deceleration in July, coming in at +8.4% y/y, down 0.1pp and a significant 0.4pp below forecasts.
  • On the month a -1.1% contraction was recorded in the flash, following June's +1.2% m/m expansion.
  • A substantial slowdown in energy prices was recorded (+42.9% y/y in July vs +48.7% in June).
  • ISTAT states that the July slowdown was largely due to a small easing of goods prices, whilst services continued to accelerate.
  • Despite the decrease in headline inflation, core CPI jumped 0.3pp to a 1996 high of +4.3% y/y in the July flash, underscoring the continued growth of broad-based prices. As such, the softer headline surprise consitutes continued inflationary growth in Italy.

Source: ISTAT

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