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GERMAN DATA: Small Regions Suggest Some Upside Risk For National CPI

GERMAN DATA
Data BulletEurozoneGermanyCEEMEABulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

December CPI Y/Y prints for Hesse (2.7% vs 2.0% Nov) and Rhineland-Palatinate (3.3% vs 2.7% Nov) clearly accelerated more than consensus expects for the national-level CPI due today (with the median analyst looking for 2.4% Y/Y after 2.2% in Nov). The Hesse M/M print of +0.7% was also notably higher than the national-level consensus of +0.3%.

  • This means that there should be some upside risks here, but as Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate cumulatively only account for 12.6% of the national basket, we can't put too much weight on the apparent beat just yet.
  • Also, as the Hesse & R-P statistics agencies both noted some elevated uncertainty with the data on the back of a methodology update, the national agency Destatis might also be less certain on the flash print than usual. Nevertheless, focus lies on that national-level data, scheduled to be released today at 1300GMT/1400CET.
  • Final data bringing some more clarity for Hesse and R-P is scheduled for Thursday, alongside releases from a wider set of other states, before the finalised national CPI release on Jan 16.
  • Looking at the services prints of the two states already released, developments were mixed - there was some acceleration in Hesse but a lower print than before in Rhineland-Palatinate.
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December CPI Y/Y prints for Hesse (2.7% vs 2.0% Nov) and Rhineland-Palatinate (3.3% vs 2.7% Nov) clearly accelerated more than consensus expects for the national-level CPI due today (with the median analyst looking for 2.4% Y/Y after 2.2% in Nov). The Hesse M/M print of +0.7% was also notably higher than the national-level consensus of +0.3%.

  • This means that there should be some upside risks here, but as Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate cumulatively only account for 12.6% of the national basket, we can't put too much weight on the apparent beat just yet.
  • Also, as the Hesse & R-P statistics agencies both noted some elevated uncertainty with the data on the back of a methodology update, the national agency Destatis might also be less certain on the flash print than usual. Nevertheless, focus lies on that national-level data, scheduled to be released today at 1300GMT/1400CET.
  • Final data bringing some more clarity for Hesse and R-P is scheduled for Thursday, alongside releases from a wider set of other states, before the finalised national CPI release on Jan 16.
  • Looking at the services prints of the two states already released, developments were mixed - there was some acceleration in Hesse but a lower print than before in Rhineland-Palatinate.