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Approaching Major Support


Inflation Concerns Underpin Bear Steepening


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The latest opinion polling ahead of Scotland's parliamentary election on Thursday 6 May shows the separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) recording a decline in support, but still retaining enough to just secure a majority of 67 seats out of 129.

  • Scottish parliament voting intention(s):
    • Constituency: SNP: 51% (-2), CON: 23% (+2), LAB: 19% (+1), LDEM: 7% (+1)
    • List: SNP: 41% (-3), CON: 23% (+1), LAB: 17% (-), GRN: 8% (+1), LDEM: 6% (+1), ALBA: 3% (+1)
    • via Opinium Research, Fieldwork: 28 Apr - 03 May. Chgs. w/ 06 Apr
  • Sky's Beth Rigby tweets on the latest poll:
    • "Seat projections: SNP on for outright majority with 67 seats. Con on 29, Lab on 20- Scots tied 50-50 on support for indy referendum."
    • 28% want #indyref within 2 yrs (SNP pledged to hold ref by end 2024)"
    • "Outright SNP majority nightmare for UK govt. Despite Tory assertions #indyref would be "illegal" without Westminster's consent, govt insiders concede more complicated than that - UK govt WOULD have to challenge Scot Gov down in Supreme Court, can't just ignore."