SocGen sees 5 themes in its...>

GLOBAL MARKET/OPINION: SocGen sees 5 themes in its quarterly econ outlook:

1) The path out of lockdown: "Exorbitant costs of lockdowns mean they must be

wound back as quickly as possible" "Should a second wave develop, we argue a

return to blanket lockdowns is highly unlikely"

2) It's all about the recovery: "We expect most economies to experience

recoveries that are combination of V and L shapes. Meanwhile, in the US and in

most emerging economies we cover, recoveries should be more L-shaped."

3) Monumental fiscal effort more effective in upswing than in freefall: "Viewed

over a slightly longer horizon, we expect deficit expansions to be similar [to

the GFC] in most places, although it is probably impossible in the euro area."

4) Central banks ride to the rescue once again: "We think negative interest

rates are unlikely to be adopted where central banks have resisted them. We

consider yield curve control to be a far superior tool"

5) Medical uncertainty calls for alternative scenarios. Present 2 alternative

scenarios. Upside vaccine/treatment in Q3 (15%), "outbreaks slow any

normalisation of economic activity (30%)"