Some analyst expectations for Powell today: -...>

FED: Some analyst expectations for Powell today:

- Deutsche anticipates that Powell "will use this opportunity to re-emphasize

the unanimous stance of the FOMC" on -ve rates: i.e., not an attractive option.

- ING notes that Fed speakers in the last few days have set the stage for Powell

to give a "dim assessment" of US economic prospects, and to dismiss -ve rates as

a "credible policy option".

- BMO FICC expects Powell to be forced to address -ve rates, "introducing

two-way risk to the front-end. If our baseline occurs - Jay comes out against

the idea - look for short-rates to rise, putting bearish pressure on 2s and

flattening the curve somewhat."

- Wrightson ICAP also assumes he will try to dampen -ve rate speculation, but

"there is a limit to how strongly he can state the case. A central bank that is

committed to doing 'whatever it takes' can never say never". However, he can

"jawbone" OIS curve higher by stressing he does not see -ve rates as attractive

at present. Don't expect him to reveal much about outlook for outright MBS/Tsy

purchases in the "recovery phase".