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SPAIN DATA: Q3 Flash GDP Stronger Than Consensus

SPAIN DATA

Spain Q3 flash GDP was stronger than consensus at 0.8% Q/Q (vs 0.6% cons, 0.8% prior) and 3.4% Y/Y (vs 3.0% cons, 3.2% prior). Spanish outperformance versus other large Eurozone countries has been telegraphed in survey evidence throughout this year, with the October flash PMIs suggesting a similar development to begin Q4 (excluding France and Germany, the rest of the Eurozone "saw output increase at the fastest pace in four months").

  • Growth continued to be driven by domestic demand, which contributed 0.9pp to the Q/Q print (vs 0.7pp in Q2). Meanwhile, external demand pulled down growth by 0.1pp (vs a +0.1pp contribution in Q2).
  • By expenditure, household consumption remained solid at 1.1% Q/Q (vs 1.0% prior), but gross fixed capital investment surprisingly contracted -0.7% Q/Q (vs +0.3% prior).
  • Export growth was 0.9% Q/Q (vs 0.7% prior) while imports grew 1.2% Q/Q (vs 0.6% prior).
  • Gross value added was positive in all major sectors (industrial, construction and services), but negative in the primary sector.

 

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Spain Q3 flash GDP was stronger than consensus at 0.8% Q/Q (vs 0.6% cons, 0.8% prior) and 3.4% Y/Y (vs 3.0% cons, 3.2% prior). Spanish outperformance versus other large Eurozone countries has been telegraphed in survey evidence throughout this year, with the October flash PMIs suggesting a similar development to begin Q4 (excluding France and Germany, the rest of the Eurozone "saw output increase at the fastest pace in four months").

  • Growth continued to be driven by domestic demand, which contributed 0.9pp to the Q/Q print (vs 0.7pp in Q2). Meanwhile, external demand pulled down growth by 0.1pp (vs a +0.1pp contribution in Q2).
  • By expenditure, household consumption remained solid at 1.1% Q/Q (vs 1.0% prior), but gross fixed capital investment surprisingly contracted -0.7% Q/Q (vs +0.3% prior).
  • Export growth was 0.9% Q/Q (vs 0.7% prior) while imports grew 1.2% Q/Q (vs 0.6% prior).
  • Gross value added was positive in all major sectors (industrial, construction and services), but negative in the primary sector.