Speculation Mounts On Unlocking Delay As COVID-19 Cases Rise

Media speculation is escalating that the final stage of unwinding COVID-19 restrictions in England could be delayed from the intended date of 21 June due to a rise in new infections and a very small uptick in hospitalisations from the virus.

• The 21 June 'Freedom day' has been seen as a full 'return to normalcy' after the pandemic in England, with the 'work from home' order revoked, capacity limits on hospitality removed, and a significant expansion in the size of mass events all expected to provide a notable boost to the UK economy.
• However, there have been calls from some scientists and politicians to push back the date of the full removal of restrictions due to a sustained rise in cases in recent days (see chart below), and a very small increase in hospitalisations. These individuals have argued that the small increase is the start of a potential exponential rise that could result in third-wave of infections from the Indian variant of the virus currently in evidence in the UK, and that a delay of a few weeks to the 21 June lifting of restrictions is a small price to pay to avoid this.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities in the UK, Nominal and % chg D-t-D (5dma)

Source: JHU, Gov.UK, MNI

• However, others - including many vocal Conservative MPs - have warned against pushing back the 21 June data, arguing that the UK's rapid vaccination programme offers significant protection to the section of the population accounting for 99% of COVID-19 fatalities, and that the virus is something to be lived with rather than being wholly eliminated.
• The gov't has so far tried to remain on the fence about the issue, having pushed back the date of notification on whether the 21 June unwinding will take place several times. Rising pressure from both sides of the argument are likely to force a decision in the coming days.