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Spreads Favour Strong European LNG Imports Despite French Diversions

LNG

European LNG imports have remained strong at over 400mcm/d in the last few weeks despite the ongoing disruption to French LNG imports due to industrial action. The first arrivals into France Montoir terminal in more than a month are currently expected on 5 and 6 April with sendout nominations showing from 5 April although the resumption of operations has not yet been confirmed.

  • High winds in the UK late last week delayed several arrivals into Milford Haven resulting in a drop in UK sendout over the weekend.
  • A total of 87 vessel arrived into NW European terminals in March with 54 from US and just below the record total of 89 seen in December.
  • TTF prices are above JKM across the forward curve to encourage flows to Europe over Asia. The front month JKM-TTF spread is currently trading around -2.6$/mmbtu.
  • Northeast Asia spot LNG prices remain under pressure due to soft demand although cold weather over parts of China have provided some support.
    • TTF MAY 23 down -5% at 48.78€/MWh
    • NBP MAY 23 down -5% at 121.9p/th
    • JKM May 23 down -0.4% at 13.91$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF May 23 down -0.2$/mmbtu at -2.63$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas MAY 23 up 0.8% at 2.11$/mmbtu


Source: Bloomberg

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