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Stages Recovery

AUD

The greenback declined on Wednesday after a four day rally, the drop allowed AUD/USD to rise. The pair briefly looked below 0.7300 in the European morning, bouncing off 0.7290 and rising to highs of 0.7363. Last trading down 5 pips on the session at 0.7355.

  • From a technical perspective AUD/USD remains weak and is trading close to recent lows. A bearish theme dominates following the recent sell-off that prompted new multi-month lows and a breach of the channel base at 0.7360. The channel is drawn from the Feb 25 high and the move lower marks an important S/T technical break. This opens 0.7235 next, the 1.236 projection of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.7429, Jul 19 high.
  • Focus during the session will likely remain on the local COVID-19 situation with speculation that the lockdown in Greater Sydney will be extended beyond the scheduled July 30 end date. PM Morrison earlier acknowledged "significant challenges" in the early stages of the nation's vaccination programme.
  • Thursday's local docket is headlined by preliminary trade balance data, weekly payrolls readings from the ABS and NAB business conditions.
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