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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Recent months have seen some analysts noting the relatively high share of US states that have triggered a Sahm rule, potentially indicative of greater labor market moderation ahead.
- However, Claudia Sahm herself wrote last month on how this rule isn’t designed to be used on a state level – see this Bloomberg article here.
- Of note from the article: “The national unemployment rate drifted higher, from 3.5% in July to 3.9% in February, along with increased immigration and other new entrants to the labor force, such as women, people of color, and people with disabilities. However, immigrants are not evenly spread across the country, so the national drift upward in unemployment has been more pronounced in certain states. The three with highest immigrant share in their state population — California (27%), New Jersey (24%), and New York (27%) — have some of the largest increases in unemployment. They also account for 20% of the US labor force.”
- Today’s state-level labor data for March help lend a little weight to this rebuttal, with the share dipping fractionally to 38% after two months at 40% as one state dropped out.
- Comparing the Sahm calculation (latest 3-mth average of u/e rate minus its minimum reading over the past twelve months) with the starts of prior recessions, the national figure of 0.27pts is far lower and still comfortably below the 0.5 indicative of recession.
- The same comparison on the share of states triggering the rule had picked up swiftly in late 2023 but unusually has plateaued since then.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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