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STIR: More Than 110bp of Fed Cuts Priced To Year End

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
  • Fed Funds implied rates are off overnight lows but hold the bulk of yesterday’s decline on broader growth concerns rather than any specific headlines.
  • Latest changes on the day are mixed, with Sep and Dec meetings 0.5-1bp higher but otherwise up to 1.5bp lower out to June.
  • Cumulative cuts: 32bp Sep, 72bp Nov, 113bp Dec, 153bp Jan and 229bp June. 

  • As such, ahead of today’s CPI release (preview), the Fed is seen as more likely to start its cutting cycle with 25bp rather than 50bp but the following three meetings all see significant odds of 50bp cuts with steps of 40/41/39bps. 

     

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  • Fed Funds implied rates are off overnight lows but hold the bulk of yesterday’s decline on broader growth concerns rather than any specific headlines.
  • Latest changes on the day are mixed, with Sep and Dec meetings 0.5-1bp higher but otherwise up to 1.5bp lower out to June.
  • Cumulative cuts: 32bp Sep, 72bp Nov, 113bp Dec, 153bp Jan and 229bp June. 

  • As such, ahead of today’s CPI release (preview), the Fed is seen as more likely to start its cutting cycle with 25bp rather than 50bp but the following three meetings all see significant odds of 50bp cuts with steps of 40/41/39bps.