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STIR: RBA Dated OIS Firmer As US Election Unfolds

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

RBA-dated OIS pricing has firmed by 2-8bps today, placing 2025 meeting pricing 3-11bps higher than pre-RBA levels yesterday. 

  • Notably, pricing for 2025 meetings is also 4-18bps above pre-Q3 CPI levels.
  • No easing is priced for this year, with June 2025 being the first meeting where a 25bp rate cut is fully anticipated.
  • The key focus today is the unfolding U.S. Election, with results coming in steadily. Cash US tsys are 9-13bps higher in today's Asia-Pac session.
  • Though it's still early, Decision Desk HQ has increased Trump's chances of winning to nearly 72%. The former president is performing strongly in Georgia, while Harris’s anticipated suburban support surge hasn't materialized, especially in Virginia, where she is underperforming Biden’s 2020 vote share, though still likely to win the state.
  • In the past few minutes, Trump's chances of winning Georgia have surged to nearly 90% on Kalshi.
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RBA-dated OIS pricing has firmed by 2-8bps today, placing 2025 meeting pricing 3-11bps higher than pre-RBA levels yesterday. 

  • Notably, pricing for 2025 meetings is also 4-18bps above pre-Q3 CPI levels.
  • No easing is priced for this year, with June 2025 being the first meeting where a 25bp rate cut is fully anticipated.
  • The key focus today is the unfolding U.S. Election, with results coming in steadily. Cash US tsys are 9-13bps higher in today's Asia-Pac session.
  • Though it's still early, Decision Desk HQ has increased Trump's chances of winning to nearly 72%. The former president is performing strongly in Georgia, while Harris’s anticipated suburban support surge hasn't materialized, especially in Virginia, where she is underperforming Biden’s 2020 vote share, though still likely to win the state.
  • In the past few minutes, Trump's chances of winning Georgia have surged to nearly 90% on Kalshi.