MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, October 16

MNI: ITALY FINAL HICP +1.2% M/M, +0.7%Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: BOJ's Adachi Sees Conditions For Normalisation

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY581.4 Bln via OMO Wednesday

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY642.4 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1191 Weds; +2.66% Y/Y

US MBA: REFIS -26% SA; PURCH INDEX -7% SA THRU OCT 11 WK

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -17.0% SA THRU OCT 11 WK

MNI: UK SEP OUTPUT PPI -0.5% M/M, -0.7% Y/Y

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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STIR: UK CPI Helps Fed Path A Little Closer To 50bp Of Cuts To End-2024

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have been biased lower overnight by softer than expected UK CPI inflation (building on yesterday’s softer CAD CPI), moving closer to fully pricing in two further 25bp cuts this year.  
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24bp Nov, 47bp Dec, 66bp Jan and 124bp June.
  • Today’s macro data sees international prices of most note for a final, albeit marginal, steer for core PCE estimates that currently average 0.25% M/M for the Oct 31 release.
  • There is no scheduled Fedspeak today, with Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25) next up with opening remarks tomorrow.
  • Atlanta Fed’s Bostic (’24) late yesterday repeated that he penciled in a single 25bp rate cut to be split over the two meetings left this year at last month’s SEP. “The question everybody asks us is ‘how fast?’ I think it depends on what happens in the labor market and what happens with inflation. […] I actually think we’re going to see inflation be choppy, and I expect that we’ll see employment stay robust.”
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have been biased lower overnight by softer than expected UK CPI inflation (building on yesterday’s softer CAD CPI), moving closer to fully pricing in two further 25bp cuts this year.  
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24bp Nov, 47bp Dec, 66bp Jan and 124bp June.
  • Today’s macro data sees international prices of most note for a final, albeit marginal, steer for core PCE estimates that currently average 0.25% M/M for the Oct 31 release.
  • There is no scheduled Fedspeak today, with Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25) next up with opening remarks tomorrow.
  • Atlanta Fed’s Bostic (’24) late yesterday repeated that he penciled in a single 25bp rate cut to be split over the two meetings left this year at last month’s SEP. “The question everybody asks us is ‘how fast?’ I think it depends on what happens in the labor market and what happens with inflation. […] I actually think we’re going to see inflation be choppy, and I expect that we’ll see employment stay robust.”