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Stubborn CPI Could Halt NBP Plan for Today’s Hike To Be The Last

POLAND
  • The NBP are today expected to raise rates by 25bps in what could be the final tightening step of the cycle. Sell-side remains split between whether the NBP stop with a final hike today, or whether the acute inflationary pressure will force rates higher into year-end. Full MNI preview here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/documents/19084/MNINBPPrevOct22.pdf
  • Pensions are in focus in Polish press today, with Gazeta Wyborcza citing a source in reporting that the government are to make a one-off 15th pension bonus payment next year. Separately, Rzeczpospolita write that new pension rules could discourage workers from paying higher contributions as planned pension payment hikes only apply to those who contributed relatively little.
  • DGP continue to flag the risks from elevated energy prices, warning that the government should take urgent steps to lower energy prices for SMEs or a wave of bankruptcies could follow.
  • Windfall tax discussions remain underway, with the cabinet mulling whether to make the scale of the levy dependent on firms’ ability to sell power on the commodity exchange, according to sources.
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