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Summary – January 31

LATAM
  • It is a busy day for LatAm central banks, with the BCB, BCCh and BanRep all announcing their latest interest rate decisions later, along with the key FOMC decision, where no change in rates is expected. The BCB looks set to continue cutting at a 50bp pace, but the central bank of Chile is expected to step up the pace of easing to 100bp, while BanRep may also deliver a larger 50bp rate cut. On the data front, Chile IP, copper production and retail sales and Brazil and Colombia unemployment are also due.
  • Global News:
    • US (MNI FED PREVIEW) – The Fed will hold rates steady for the 5th time in 6 meetings in January. The main question will be the degree to which the Statement and Chair Powell leave the door open to a rate cut as soon as March. There is a good chance that the forward guidance will be amended to remove the tightening bias in favour of a more neutral stance, in light of recent disinflationary progress.
    • ECB – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde declined to give a timeline for interest-rate cuts but emphasised that wage data will be vital in deciding when to begin monetary easing. The comments suggest a first reduction in borrowing costs will only be feasible toward mid-2024, later than the April meeting that markets are fully pricing.
    • BOJ (MNI POLICY) – While the April 25-26 meeting remains the most likely timing for policy adjustment, there is still an outside chance the BoJ could look to end its negative rates policy in March 18-19 due to strong wage and prices data, MNI understands. BoJ board members actively discussed an exit policy at the Jan 22-23 meeting, the summary of opinions released on Wednesday showed.
    • CHINA (MNI BRIEF) – China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 points to 49.2 in January, remaining in the contractionary zone below the breakeven 50 mark for the fourth month, but ending three consecutive months of decline, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.
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