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Summary of Analyst Views (1/2)

BOE
  • Out of 22 analyst reviews that we have read, 15 have changed their base case BOE call following yesterday’s meeting.
  • All analysts continue to expect a hike in August, but 6 have increased the magnitude of that hike to 50bp (prior to the June meeting, there was a unanimous view across these analysts that the base case for August was a 25bp hike).
  • Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs also both look for a second 50bp hike in September, with GS looking for 150bp more hikes this year. This is still less than current market pricing of 182bp.
  • NatWest Markets, Rabobank and UniCredit expect August to be the last hike of 2022.
  • Most analysts views the change in forward guidance to be a hawkish step from the BOE, noting that there was no dissent to the new language and that it opens the door to larger hikes.
  • Pantheon, NatWest Markets and UniCredit argued that the change was actually a dovish move from the Bank (at least in the near-term) as the guidance is looser and the Bank has removed the time commitment for further tightening in the “coming months”.
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