Free Trial

Summary of Citi's call for FOMC: 'may...........>

FED
FED: Summary of Citi's call for FOMC: 'may clarify' asset purchases today:
- The better than expected May employment report should make the FOMC a bit more
upbeat but will not substantially change decisions or forecasts.
- SEP: Median for no hikes through 2021 (though some dots above zero); shallow
hike pace in 2022.
- GDP forecasts to show large 2020 contraction, rebound in 2021, and very dovish
path for both unemployment and core inflation.
- Fwd guidance: Quantitative-threshold based likely in September, but June is
too soon.
- YCC: Guidance likely to be paired with a weak form of YCC -commitment to
purchase in amounts as necessary so that front-end yields (perhaps out to 3-Yr)
reflect the policy path implied by forward guidance.
- QE: FOMC may clarify its ongoing pace of Tsy/MBS purchases from the current
"as needed" to announcing a monthly pace (e.g. $100bn/month Tsy); not Citi's
base case.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.