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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Lodging away from home lower than expected: -0.9% M/M in Nov vs analyst average 0.6% (range -0.6% to +1.0%) after -2.5% M/M in Oct. The smaller decline compared to Oct added a smaller than expected 0.02pps to core CPI inflation.
- Vehicle insurance was likely lower than expected, rising 0.96% M/M after 1.9% M/M. It’s the softest monthly print since February after a particularly strong run.
- It’s hard to get a sense of broader analyst expectations here but GS had looked for a slowdown to 1.1% M/M as premiums have nearly caught up to repair and replacement costs, vs Barclays and MS not expecting moderation this month. This moderation on its own dragged -0.03pps from core CPI (but remember it doesn’t feed into PCE calculations).
- Those two categories coming in weaker than expected makes the strength in supercore CPI more impressive.
- Upside from medical care services: accelerated to 0.60% M/M from 0.32% for the fastest pace since Sep’22 (i.e. pre the health insurance reset lower in Oct’22). The increase added 0.02pps to core CPI.
- Also of note, our calculation of “other services” in the below table bounced back to add a relative 0.05pps to core CPI vs Oct.
- No surprise from airfares: -0.4% M/M in Nov vs analyst average 0.1% (but range from -3% to +4%) after -0.9% M/M in Oct.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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