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Supply Disruption and Hot Weather add to Tight LNG

LNG

Hot weather in Asia could put more pressure on already tight LNG markets. Above normal temperatures could lead to increased power generation demand for higher air conditioning load.

  • Despite the hotter weather forecasts, demand in Asia remains uncertain with China still struggling to emerge from Covid lockdown restrictions.
  • Even with the potential higher Asia demand prices remain at a discount to European TTF due to pipeline gas supply disruption from Russia to Europe. TTF is currently trading up 6.4% today to 125€/MWh and the JKM-TTF spread is at -4.5$/mmbtu.
  • Delivery of gas to US LNG export terminals remains relatively unchanged from last week at 10.73bcf. Approximately 2bcf of US LNG exports will be missing due to the Freeport LNG outage until September.
  • US LNG netback to Europe for August is estimated at 29.81$/mmbtu and to Asia is 25.34$/mmbtu.
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