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Supply Uncertainty Maintains Brent Crude Backwardation

OIL

Brent crude forward curve backwardation remains relatively stable despite falling crude prices over the last month.

  • Recessionary fears, central bank tightening and a stronger US dollar have driven crude lower over the last month, but ongoing supply uncertainty is keeping the time spreads positive.
  • Earlier this month OPEC reported spare capacity at about 2-3mbpd and described it as ‘running on the ice’. The lower demand expectations and falling prices potentially raises the chances of an OPEC production cut. UBS this morning said OPEC+ must make a supply cut to halt the decline in oil.
    • Brent NOV 22 up 1.5% at 85.29$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 22 up 1.3% at 77.73$/bbl
    • Brent NOV 22-DEC 22 up 0.07$/bbl at 1.27$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 22-JAN 23 up 0.03$/bbl at 1.55$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 up 0.46$/bbl at 9.07$/bbl

Source: Bloomberg

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