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Free AccessSupply Uncertainty Maintains Brent Crude Backwardation
Brent crude forward curve backwardation remains relatively stable despite falling crude prices over the last month.
- Recessionary fears, central bank tightening and a stronger US dollar have driven crude lower over the last month, but ongoing supply uncertainty is keeping the time spreads positive.
- Earlier this month OPEC reported spare capacity at about 2-3mbpd and described it as ‘running on the ice’. The lower demand expectations and falling prices potentially raises the chances of an OPEC production cut. UBS this morning said OPEC+ must make a supply cut to halt the decline in oil.
- Brent NOV 22 up 1.5% at 85.29$/bbl
- WTI NOV 22 up 1.3% at 77.73$/bbl
- Brent NOV 22-DEC 22 up 0.07$/bbl at 1.27$/bbl
- Brent DEC 22-JAN 23 up 0.03$/bbl at 1.55$/bbl
- Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 up 0.46$/bbl at 9.07$/bbl
Source: Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.