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Surprise Surplus and Substantial Revisions in German Trade Balance

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY JUN TRADE BALANCE EUR 6.4 BLN; MAY EUR 0.8r BLN

  • German trade data for June saw significantly stronger exports (+4.5% m/m vs +1.3%r m/m in May) and softer imports (+0.2% m/m vs +3.2%r m/m in May).
  • This generated a more healthy trade surplus of EUR 6.4bln, a massive beat of the 0.2bln forecast. The surplus remains less than half of that in 2021.
  • The first German trade deficit since 1991 was initially reported in the May data at -1.0bln, however, this has been revised to +0.8bln in the June release.
  • High commodity prices and food prices have generated inflated imports, as energy prices soar due to the effects of the ongoing Ukraine war. This coupled with lower manufacturing exports of an industry hampered by supply disruptions has accounted for a slowdown in German trade.


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