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Swap Rates Lurch Over Past Month As Inflationary Pressures Continue

BRAZIL
  • BRL led EMFX losses yesterday following the pop above 5.30 on the Fed minutes. With the slightly weaker dollar overnight and small gains for the emerging market currency index, USDBRL may retrace yesterday's gains.
  • Notable move in swap rates over the past month, remaining under pressure as inflationary pressure on global yields combine with fears about a potential energy crisis. Rates have climbed 38-59bps across the curve over the past 30 days.
    • Most of Brazil's energy supply comes from hydroelectric plants and recent droughts have led specialists to warn the country may face an energy shortage starting in November.
  • Central bank's Campos Neto in Brasilia: attending a lunch with Economy Minister Guedes.
  • Treasury auctions fixed-rate LTN local notes due 2022, 2023 and 2024; fixed-rate NTN-F local notes due 2027 and 2031; and Selic-linked LFT notes due 2022 and 2027.
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