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SWEDEN: Economic Sentiment Should Pick Up As Rate Cuts Continue

SWEDEN
CEEMEABulletSwedenGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

The Economic Sentiment Indicator remained below the long-term average in August, printing at 94.7 (vs 94.9 prior). With the Riksbank having guided for two or three more cuts this calendar year, we expect sentiment to react positively in the coming months.

  • There were limited changes in sentiment across industries. The retail sector remains the only industry with sentiment in expansionary territory (101.7 vs 101.8 prior), even after July retail sales (released this morning) remained subdued at -0.1% on a 3m/3m basis.
  • On consumer confidence, the release notes a “substantial gap between forward-looking and backward-looking questions”. Forward-looking responses were “more positive than normal”, which should support a recovery in household consumption in the coming quarters.
  • Total industry expected prices ticked up a little to 15 (vs 13 prior), driven by a small increase in retail price expected prices. Services expected prices remained steady, so overall should not concern the Riksbank.
  • Overall expected employment moderated a touch, consistent with ongoing labour market rebalancing.
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The Economic Sentiment Indicator remained below the long-term average in August, printing at 94.7 (vs 94.9 prior). With the Riksbank having guided for two or three more cuts this calendar year, we expect sentiment to react positively in the coming months.

  • There were limited changes in sentiment across industries. The retail sector remains the only industry with sentiment in expansionary territory (101.7 vs 101.8 prior), even after July retail sales (released this morning) remained subdued at -0.1% on a 3m/3m basis.
  • On consumer confidence, the release notes a “substantial gap between forward-looking and backward-looking questions”. Forward-looking responses were “more positive than normal”, which should support a recovery in household consumption in the coming quarters.
  • Total industry expected prices ticked up a little to 15 (vs 13 prior), driven by a small increase in retail price expected prices. Services expected prices remained steady, so overall should not concern the Riksbank.
  • Overall expected employment moderated a touch, consistent with ongoing labour market rebalancing.