SWEDEN
The stronger-than-expected (albeit caveated) Q3 GDP print was the key Swedish data release today, but October retail sales and September wage data also warrant mentioning:
- Retail Sales: Rose 0.4% M/M and 0.9% Y/Y, with 3m/3m growth picking up two tenths to 0.5%.
- This follows yesterday’s retail sentiment data from the November Economic Tendency Survey, which rose to its highest since May 2022. The recovery in retail sales (alongside improving consumer confidence) should signal improving prospects for household consumption in Q4 (after consumption growth was flat Q/Q in Q3).
- However, the Economic Tendency Survey suggested that household’s major purchase intentions over the next year remain subdued.
- Wages: Rose 3.9% Y/Y (steady vs August), with private sector nominal wages up 4.0% Y/Y (vs 3.9% prior). This meant real wages climbed to 2.8% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior), the strongest level since 2014. A recovery in real wages should also support consumption growth next year. Additionally, the Riksbank appear quite relaxed on next year’s union wage agreements, which are expected to remain consistent with the inflation target.
- Analysts currently project Swedish consumption growth to pick up to 2.3% Y/Y in 2025, up from a weak 0.1% Y/Y this year.
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