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SWITZERLAND DATA: October KOF Drops On Production Side of Economy

SWITZERLAND DATA
SwitzerlandData BulletCEEMEABulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 99.5 in October, significantly below consensus of 105.0 and following a downwardly revised 104.5 in September. This is the first time since January that the index moved below the longer-run average level of near 100.

  • “The indicator bundles of all production-side categories included in the barometer decline in October: the indicators for manufacturing, financial and insurance services, other services, hospitality and construction."
  • "However, the demand-side indicators, the indicators for foreign demand and consumer demand, are not following this downward tendency. The development of the demand-side indicators, though, does not currently give hope for stronger impetus.”
  • The report also highlights some particular weakness in manufacturing - which mirrors commentary from the last SNB press conference.
  • The current outlook for the Swiss economy overall looks rather bright according to MNI’s collation of sellside analysts - which stands at +2.0% Y/Y for Q3 GDP growth and got revised upwardly during the last month, this would follow +1.8% Y/Y Q2 - but a continuation of lower sentiment readings could raise that into question over time. The UBS expectations survey as well as the local PMI print, both to be released over the next two days, would be what to watch here.
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The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 99.5 in October, significantly below consensus of 105.0 and following a downwardly revised 104.5 in September. This is the first time since January that the index moved below the longer-run average level of near 100.

  • “The indicator bundles of all production-side categories included in the barometer decline in October: the indicators for manufacturing, financial and insurance services, other services, hospitality and construction."
  • "However, the demand-side indicators, the indicators for foreign demand and consumer demand, are not following this downward tendency. The development of the demand-side indicators, though, does not currently give hope for stronger impetus.”
  • The report also highlights some particular weakness in manufacturing - which mirrors commentary from the last SNB press conference.
  • The current outlook for the Swiss economy overall looks rather bright according to MNI’s collation of sellside analysts - which stands at +2.0% Y/Y for Q3 GDP growth and got revised upwardly during the last month, this would follow +1.8% Y/Y Q2 - but a continuation of lower sentiment readings could raise that into question over time. The UBS expectations survey as well as the local PMI print, both to be released over the next two days, would be what to watch here.