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TD: Surge In Used Vehicle Prices

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

TD (+0.4% core M/M, +0.3% headline) is on the higher end of inflation expectations (BBG median is +0.3% core, +0.2% headline) for Wednesday's April report. They see a surge in used vehicle prices and strong reopening-related gains in airfares and hotel rates pushing core higher.

  • TD notes that used vehicles have a 3.5% weight in core CPI, double the combined weight of airfares/hotels.
  • But "we advise against extrapolating from what appear to be short-term supply-demand imbalances. Prices for items currently in short supply will probably reverse at least some of their strengthening as supply catches up with demand."
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