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(U1) Tilted Higher


(U1) Uptrend Weakening


Bullard Kickstarts Reflation Unwind Theme


Fresh 2021 Lows

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  • EURHUF maintains a weaker tone as it extends the current retracement of the rally between Apr 12 - 23. A key resistance has been defined at 364.4, Apr 23 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish focus. Initial resistance is seen at 360.78, May 4 high. For bears, a continued move lower opens support at 356.27, Apr 12 low.
  • EURPLN is firmer and attention is on resistance at 4.5931, Apr 28 high. A bearish theme however remains intact with key support and the bear trigger at 4.5203, Apr 12 low and just above 4.5202, 76.4% of the Feb 10 - Mar 29 rally. A clear break of this level would suggest scope for a deeper pullback to 4.50 and 4.4709, Feb 10 low. For bulls, clearance of 4.5931 is needed to strengthen a bullish case. This would instead open 4.6088, Apr 5 high, and beyond.
  • USDZAR outlook is unchanged and remains bearish. Recent price activity continues to highlight a potential bear flag formation. If correct, it represents a continuation pattern and reinforces a bearish case. The focus is on 14.6122, the 1.236 Fibonacci projection of the Apr - Jun - Aug 2020 price swing. The bear trigger is 14.1484, Apr 29 low. Resistance is at 14.5824, the 50-day EMA.
  • USDTRY technical conditions remain bullish. The pair traded to a fresh high of 8.4851 on Apr 26. Despite the pullback that followed, the needle still points north. Fresh gains would expose 8.5793, the Nov 6 high and an important resistance. Key support is unchanged at 7.6958, Mar 22 low. Initial firm support is 7.9886, Apr 2 low.
  • USDRUB outlook remains bearish and the pair has resumed its current bearish cycle. The focus is on 73.8370, 76.4% of the rally between Mar 16 - Apr 7 and below. Resistance is at 75.3590, the May 4 high.