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TECHS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDZAR Bear Flag

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF is weaker again, extending the current retracement of the rally between Apr 12 - 23. Resistance has been defined at 364.4, Apr 23 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish focus. Initial resistance is seen at 360.78, May 4 high. For bears, a continued move lower opens support at 356.27, Apr 12 low.
  • EURPLN is firmer though and attention is on resistance at 4.5931, Apr 28 high. A bearish theme remains intact and attention is on the key support at 4.5203, Apr 12 low and just above 4.5202, 76.4% of the Feb 10 - Mar 29 rally. A clear break of this support would suggest scope for a deeper pullback to 4.50 and 4.4709, Feb 10 low. For bulls, clearance of 4.5931 is needed to strengthen a bullish case. This would instead open 4.6088, Apr 5 high, and beyond.
  • USDZAR outlook remains bearish. Recent price activity continues to highlight a potential bear flag formation. If correct, it represents a continuation pattern and reinforces a bearish case. The focus is on 14.6122, the 1.236 Fibonacci projection of the Apr - Jun - Aug 2020 price swing. The bear trigger is 14.1484, Apr 29 low. Resistance is at 14.5976, the 50-day EMA.
  • USDTRY outlook remains bullish. The pair traded to a fresh high last week of 8.4851 on Apr 26. Despite the pullback that followed, the needle still points north. Fresh gains would expose 8.5793, the Nov 6 high and an important resistance. Key support is unchanged at 7.6958, Mar 22 low. Initial firm support is 7.9886, Apr 2 low.
  • USDRUB outlook remains bearish and attention is on support at 74.2006, Apr 29 low. A break would open 73.8370, 76.4% of the rally between Mar 16 - Apr 7 and below. Resistance is at 75.4199, the 20-day EMA.
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