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Tentative Signs Of Export Y/Y Momentum Basing, But Tech Exports Remain Soft

SINGAPORE

Singapore exports were better than expected in m/m terms, printing at +2.7%, versus -3.1% expected and +18.4% prior). The y/y pace was still a touch weaker though at -9.8%, versus -9.7% forecast and -8.3% prior. Also note, electronic exports remained depressed in y/y terms, coming in at -23.3% (-22.3% prior).

  • The y/y was aided by a surge in pharmaceuticals (+126.7% y/y), but this tends to be a volatile sub-component. Most other sub-components remain negative in y/y terms.
  • By country, most are still in negative y/y terms, with China at -20.9% y/y, but the US was more positive at +40.7% and South Korea also firmed to +4.3% y/y.
  • Looking at the smoothed trend of export growth, (3 month MA of y/y growth) we may be past the worst of the slowdown, see the chart below. Still, SGD NEER y/y momentum is easing from elevated levels and will likely come down further from here.

Fig 1: SGD NEER Y/Y & Singapore Export Growth (Smoothed)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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