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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EMERGING MARKETS
- As we mentioned last week, the CEE region currently offers the lowest real yields among the EM world, with Poland being at the bottom of the league with a current 10Y real yield of -1.6% (CPI inflation adjusted, see table below).
- Interestingly, as CEE policymakers expect the spike in inflation to be only temporary (mainly driven by fuel prices and 'regulatory factors'), CBs will keep try to keep financial conditions as loose as possible to stimulate growth expectations, which have been skewed to the downside due to the worsening Covid situations in Q1.
- Low ST interest rates combined with QE purchases should limit the upside move on the long end of the curve and therefore lead to even lower LT real yields in the coming months.
- Inflation in Hungary is expected to temporary spike above the NBH upper tolerance band and reach nearly 5% in Q2 before starting to ease.
- NBP governor Glapinski also mentioned on Friday that inflation is expected to rise above the 3.5% upper tolerance band in the short term.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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