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US TSYS/3Y: The Treasury this week has a busy coupon auction supply calendar:
$24 billion 3-year notes Tuesday, $23 billion 10-year notes Wednesday and $15
billion 30-year bonds on Thursday. Citigroup analysts said to "watch for foreign
participation in the auctions" as the 3/10/30-year auctions "could see increased
foreign demand from the weaker dollar."
- They added that "from our statistical analysis, looking at the past 7 years,
we found that foreign takedown at 3y/10y/30y auctions have been negatively
correlated to a stronger dollar showing that dollar weakness implies more
foreign participation in auctions. We found this especially true for new issues
in 10y and 30y, compared to re-openings, and hence due the recent weakness in
the dollar, we may see stronger indirects, which are typically driven by foreign
investors, in next week's auctions."