Three Scenarios Surrounding Turkey's Canal Istanbul Project

• Three scenarios regarding geopolitical risks surrounding with Turkey's Canal Istanbul project: EU Geopolitics & Security Expert
• Canal Istanbul will become an instrument in Erdoğan arsenal in his constant efforts to include Turkey in regional geopolitical games and the legal status of the canal will require political and diplomatic talks to avoid a disbalance of the regional security architecture.

Scenarios:

1. Applying the provisions of the Montreux Convention to Canal Istanbul project will give Turkey a chance to negotiate directly with the major players, "establishing its geopolitical and security interests"
2. If Turkey dismisses the Montreaux convention, NATO's naval forces would enter into the Black Sea anytime they want via the new canal, causing strategic difficulties for Russia and the eventual militarisation of the Black Sea
3. Turkey might preserve the Montreux Convention while keeping Canal Istanbul out of its jurisdiction and that would allow Turkey to influence the situation both in the Black Sea and the East Med.
   • This would force NATO, the EU, as well as Russia and China to take into account Turkey's geopolitical and security interests - AhvalJACK LEWIS14:52:58 The Erdogan arsenal