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Free AccessTrade Data Show Signs Of Solid Domestic Demand In June
- The trade deficit narrowed by less than expected in June to a seasonally adjusted $73.1bn (cons $72.5bn) after $75.0bn.
- It leaves a deficit still tracking at the ~3.1% GDP seen in May for a widening from the 2.9% GDP in Q1.
- The widening in recent months has been goods led, moving out to a deficit of 4.2% GDP, whilst the services surplus continues to hold at 1.0% GDP.
- However, compared to pre-pandemic historical averages, it’s the services surplus that has failed to return to pre-pandemic levels (averaged 1.4% GDP) whereas the goods deficit is consistent.
- In real terms, goods exports and imports bounced on the month, with exports 3.2% M/M after -0.7% and imports +0.9% M/M after -0.4%.
- The import components point to increasingly positive signs for domestic demand, with consumer import volumes rising 5.6% Y/Y and capital goods volumes rising 14.5% Y/Y.
- The latter have continued what’s been an impressive upturn in levels since the turn of the year.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.