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Trade Data Show Signs Of Solid Domestic Demand In June

US DATA
  • The trade deficit narrowed by less than expected in June to a seasonally adjusted $73.1bn (cons $72.5bn) after $75.0bn.
  • It leaves a deficit still tracking at the ~3.1% GDP seen in May for a widening from the 2.9% GDP in Q1.
  • The widening in recent months has been goods led, moving out to a deficit of 4.2% GDP, whilst the services surplus continues to hold at 1.0% GDP.
  • However, compared to pre-pandemic historical averages, it’s the services surplus that has failed to return to pre-pandemic levels (averaged 1.4% GDP) whereas the goods deficit is consistent.
  • In real terms, goods exports and imports bounced on the month, with exports 3.2% M/M after -0.7% and imports +0.9% M/M after -0.4%.
  • The import components point to increasingly positive signs for domestic demand, with consumer import volumes rising 5.6% Y/Y and capital goods volumes rising 14.5% Y/Y.
  • The latter have continued what’s been an impressive upturn in levels since the turn of the year.

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