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Trade Deficit Narrows As Both Exports And Imports Weaken

THAILAND

The customs trade deficit for October came in better than expected at US$596mn on the back of very disappointing import growth. The September deficit was US$853mn. Both export and import growth were below expectations at -4.4% y/y and -2.1% respectively compared with consensus of +5.5% and +11%.

  • Disappointing data, such as this, is likely to keep the Bank of Thailand cautious this week with only a 25bp rate hike to 1.25%.
  • The Thai minister for trade expects exports going forward to face headwinds from slower global growth but to be boosted by the weaker currency and stronger tourist numbers.
  • Exports in the year to October rose 9.1% y/y, which is still elevated. The ministry expects 2022 exports to be more than double the 4% y/y target.
Thailand customs trade balance USDmn 3mma

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The customs trade deficit for October came in better than expected at US$596mn on the back of very disappointing import growth. The September deficit was US$853mn. Both export and import growth were below expectations at -4.4% y/y and -2.1% respectively compared with consensus of +5.5% and +11%.

  • Disappointing data, such as this, is likely to keep the Bank of Thailand cautious this week with only a 25bp rate hike to 1.25%.
  • The Thai minister for trade expects exports going forward to face headwinds from slower global growth but to be boosted by the weaker currency and stronger tourist numbers.
  • Exports in the year to October rose 9.1% y/y, which is still elevated. The ministry expects 2022 exports to be more than double the 4% y/y target.
Thailand customs trade balance USDmn 3mma

Keep reading...Show less