GLOBAL MACRO
May CPB data showed that global trade and IP continue to grow but at sluggish rates, while the outlook is also lacklustre with broad based monetary easing yet to start. The global manufacturing PMI and Baltic Freight Index signal that growth is likely to continue to move sideways at low levels, while copper prices point to downside risks. Global export growth is also quite concentrated in non-Japan Asia.
- Trade volumes rose 0.2% y/y down from 1% in April but did record the first consecutive monthly increases since Q1 2023.
- Global export volume growth rose 0.9% m/m to be up 1.7% y/y after 1.4% y/y in April. Emerging markets drove the increase and non-Japan Asia specifically.
- EM exports rose 4.1% m/m to be 5% y/y while developed countries fell 1.3% m/m and 0.5% y/y. DM volumes have been moving sideways for the last 18 months. Whereas shipments from EM Asia ex China rose 10.6% y/y, China 9.6% and also advanced Asia ex Japan rose 7.7% y/y. However, other EM regions were weak posting declines.
Exports y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CPB
- The US was the highlight amongst DM with exports rising 2.7% y/y, while the euro area fell 4.9% y/y, UK 11.6% and Japan 0.7%.
Exports y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CPB
- Global IP growth remained lacklustre in May rising only 0.2% m/m to be 1.8% higher on a year ago, down from 2.3%. The June PMI is not suggesting any pick up. The July index is released Thursday but country data suggest that it is likely to be subdued.
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