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Traders Respectful of NBP's Line in the Sand on EUR/PLN, but for How Long?

POLAND
  • EUR/PLN pulls back from yesterday's high after NBP announced further FX intervention remains in the pipeline.
  • For now markets remain respectful of the 4.48-4.50 line in the sand, but that resolve is expected to be tested in the latter part of 1Q21 as appreciation pressures on a favourable global backdrop creep back in.
  • Sell-side still confident that rates will stay on hold at 0.1% in 2021 & potentially out to 2022, but wary of risks to this outlook if the PLN appreciates aggressively and FX intervention proves ineffective.
  • ECB minutes today, should also inject some volatility into the mix for PLN.
  • Sup1: 4.5302, Sup2: 4.5227, Res1: 4.5521, Res2: 4.5688.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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