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Treasuries Flatten With Growth Fears

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have fluctuated through Asian and European sessions, with the long end rallying intraday on growth fears, but ultimately sit with a solid bear flattening from Friday’s close after the US holiday.
  • It leaves the curve extremely flat through 2-10Y tenors as growth concerns continue to weigh, but with only factory orders today, the next significant steer could wait until tomorrow’s ISM services after Friday’s miss in the manufacturing report sparked a further substantial rally before ultimately reversing.
  • 2YY +7.1bps at 2.904%, 5YY +2.5bps at 2.902%, 10YY +2.4bps at 2.904% and 30YY +2.3bps at 3.126%
  • TYU2 has unwound the bulk of yesterday’s gradual dip in very thin markets to leave it just half a tick lower from Friday’s close at 119-07+. It still trades close to recent highs with the bull cycle still in play: resistance is eyed at 120-04 (Jul 1 high) and support at 118-06 (Jul 1 low).
  • Data: Limited to factory orders/final durable goods at 1000ET before a heavy schedule tomorrow including ISM services, JOLTS and the FOMC minutes.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $45B 13W and $42B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)

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