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US TSYS/3Y: Treasuries have seen recent buying amid morning muted two-way flows
and also pre-auction shorts into 1pm ET US$24B 3Y note auction. Tsys also have
seen some 30-year bond buying too, amid 2/10Y, 2/30Y, 2/5Y and 5/30Y curve
- Nomura analysts eyed 3Y auction and said the "risk appetite for front-end
duration could remain on the weak side. The change in the Treasury's rhetoric to
increase issuance size on front-end USTs instead of on the long end, in the
latest refunding announcement, is putting pressure on short-end duration."
- They add "the wide FX basis is also offering attractive yields and competing
against short-term US Treasuries for dollar liquidity," which "may also lead to
diminished interest from foreign central banks, whose US Treasury buying has
also slowed in recent weeks. That said, a Powell- led Fed could offer comfort
for owning the front end, especially given that the vol adjusted carry/roll on
front end looks attractive."