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Treasuries Rally As Growth Fears Remain In Focus

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a sizeable rally already today with the combination of China demand fears on rising Covid cases, both German and European ZEW financial analyst sentiment sliding and a further decline in the US NFIB small business survey in the only data of the day.
  • The result has been the largest inversion in 2s10s inversion since 2007 at -8bps whilst the 3M to 10Y spread continues its slide, touching 74bp having been 120bp just at the start of July and 176bp at the start of June.
  • 2YY -5.8bps at 3.014%, 5YY -6.8bps at 2.987%, 10YY -6.8bps at 2.924% and 30YY -5.0bps at 3.124%.
  • TYU2 trades 16 ticks higher at 118-28 off an earlier high of 119-03 on solidly above average volumes. It stopped just show of resistance at 119-05 (Jul 7 high), clearance of which could open the bull trigger at 120-16+ (Jul 6 high).
  • Fedspeak: Barkin (’24 voter) to discuss his speech on The Recession Question from Jun 21 with Q&A.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $33B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CEP2) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $34B 52W bill auction – 1130ET

UST 2Y, and 10Y yields top panel, 2s10s and 3M to 10Y spreads bottom panel (showing last price and not ask price in text)Source: Bloomberg

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