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Treasury Futures Pare Gains, Bowman Says "Some Time" Before Cuts

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures pared gains as US session progressed, trading near steady after near in-line FHFA House Price Index. More of a reaction to higher than expected Canada core CPI data as rates extended modest lows into midday. TUU4 finished unchanged at 102-05⅝, while TYU4 finished trading +0-02 at 110-19, although we have given back those gains this morning and trade at 110-17+
  • Contributing to the pressure, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman Tuesday said it will likely be "some time" before the U.S. central bank can begin lowering interest rates, warning that U.S. monetary policy over the coming months could diverge from that of other advanced economies.
  • A bull cycle in Treasuries remains in play and recent consolidation still appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Support at 109-24+ (50-day EMA), a break here would open a move to 109-00+ (Jun 10 low), to the upside resistance lays at 111-01 (June 14 high) a break here would open a move to 111-13 (Mar 25 high)
  • Cash treasury curve bear-flattened on Tuesday, the 2Y +1.9bps at 4.742%, 5Y +2.1bps at 4.251% while the 10Y was +1.5bps at 4.248%, the 2y10y was -0.138 at -49.690
  • Data: Dallas Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.18 vs -0.25 est, Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 100.4 vs 100.0, Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -10 vs -3
  • Fed speak remains cautious: SF Fed Pres Daly notes that "the bumpiness of inflation data so far this year has not inspired confidence", and while "recent readings are more encouraging...it is hard to know if we are truly on track to sustainable price stability."
  • Looking ahead, New Home Sales, 5Y Auction on Wednesday, main focus on PCE inflation data in the latter half of the week.
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