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Treasury Futures Slightly Weaker, Focus Turns To FOMC Minutes On Wed

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Treasuries futures were relatively stables heading into the US session on Monday, before a move lower coincided with a rebound in the USD. Treasuries broke narrow ranges, before a small rally into the NY close although we haven't been able to sustain it and drifted lower post the close.
  • Jun'24 10Y futures closed the session down (- 03+) at 109-03 and we have opened unchanged on Tuesday. Support now holds at 108-27+ (50-Day EMA) a break here would see us test 108-15 (Mar 14th Low), while to the upside initial resistance is 109-31+ (May 16 high).
  • The treasury curve pushed wider on Monday with yields were 2-2.5bps higher, the 2Y yield +2.3bps at 4.848%, 10Y +2.4bps to 4.443%, while the 2y10y +0.191 at -40.876
  • Vice Chair for Supervision Barr says in prepared remarks for a keynote address that restrictive policy needs further time to do its work and that the Fed is in a good position to hold rates steady whilst it watches. The economy is strong, growth is solid and unemployment is low.
  • Rate cut projections have receded vs. this morning's levels (*): June 2024 at -5% w/ cumulative rate cut -1.2bp at 5.318%, July'24 at -20% w/ cumulative at -6.3bp (-7.5bp) at 5.267%, Sep'24 cumulative -19.6bp (-20.9bp), Nov'24 cumulative -27.1bp (-29bp), Dec'24 -41.5bp (-43.9bp).
  • Looking ahead: No economic data and a raft of Fed speakers. Focus on the minutes from the May 1 FOMC this Wednesday.
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Treasuries futures were relatively stables heading into the US session on Monday, before a move lower coincided with a rebound in the USD. Treasuries broke narrow ranges, before a small rally into the NY close although we haven't been able to sustain it and drifted lower post the close.
  • Jun'24 10Y futures closed the session down (- 03+) at 109-03 and we have opened unchanged on Tuesday. Support now holds at 108-27+ (50-Day EMA) a break here would see us test 108-15 (Mar 14th Low), while to the upside initial resistance is 109-31+ (May 16 high).
  • The treasury curve pushed wider on Monday with yields were 2-2.5bps higher, the 2Y yield +2.3bps at 4.848%, 10Y +2.4bps to 4.443%, while the 2y10y +0.191 at -40.876
  • Vice Chair for Supervision Barr says in prepared remarks for a keynote address that restrictive policy needs further time to do its work and that the Fed is in a good position to hold rates steady whilst it watches. The economy is strong, growth is solid and unemployment is low.
  • Rate cut projections have receded vs. this morning's levels (*): June 2024 at -5% w/ cumulative rate cut -1.2bp at 5.318%, July'24 at -20% w/ cumulative at -6.3bp (-7.5bp) at 5.267%, Sep'24 cumulative -19.6bp (-20.9bp), Nov'24 cumulative -27.1bp (-29bp), Dec'24 -41.5bp (-43.9bp).
  • Looking ahead: No economic data and a raft of Fed speakers. Focus on the minutes from the May 1 FOMC this Wednesday.