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Tsy/Eurodollar Market Roundup

Unconvincing risk-on tone, Tsys mildly weaker but well off early overnight lows, equities firmer, EDH2 near overnight highs at 4541.25 +17.0. Current 30YY 2.1515% vs. 2.1730% high, 10YY 1.8343% vs. 1.8682% overnight high; yield curves mixed, short end flatter, 5s30s +.96 at 53.59.
  • Eurodollar futures mixed, lead quarterly EDH2 regaining some ground after heavy selling early in week. Latter half of Whites (EDU2-EDZ2) through Reds (EDH3-EDZ3) weaker as mkt still pricing in tighter policy (pundits suggesting more than for .25bp hikes this year, and/or .50bp hike as early as March meeting.
  • Ongoing geopolitical tensions over Russia troop build on Ukraine border. Pres Biden expressed concern Putin will begin inserting troops amassed on border in Wed evening presser.
  • While Fed in media blackout re: monetary policy, Pres Biden kicked off the nearly two hour conf vowing support of Fed in combating inflation: “Given the strength of our economy and the pace of recent price increases, it is appropriate, as Fed chairman [Jay] Powell has indicated, to recalibrate the support that is now necessary,” FT.
  • More focus than usual on this morning's weekly claims as they'll correspond with the Jan employment survey period:
    • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
    • Jan-20 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (230k, 225k)
    • Jan-20 0830 Continuing Claims (1.559M, 1.563M)
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 |
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 |

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