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Tsy Ylds Higher as EU Political Uncertainty Roils Ahead Wed CPI, FOMC

US TSYS
  • Carry-over after Friday's strong employment data decline, Treasuries are mirroring weaker EGBs after France President Macron called for snap election following weekend parliamentary elections.
  • While far-right forces made strong gains vs. the majority center-right European People’s Party (EPP) in EU elections, Treasury futures have pared losses, intermediates back near the middle of the overnight range.
  • Limited US data today and tomorrow, this week's main focus is on Wednesday's May CPI and FOMC policy announcement.
  • Rush of US Treasury auctions ahead the midweek event risk: $70B each 13- and 26W bills at 1130ET, $58B 3Y Note auction (91282CKV2) at 1300ET.
  • Sep'24 10Y Treasury futures are currently trading -6 at 109-04 -- inside 6.5-tic range: 109-02 low/109-08.5 high. Friday's sharp sell-off undermines the recent bullish theme, highlighting a potential bearish reversal. The TYU4 contract breached both the 50- and 20-day EMA, while continued decline would strengthen a bearish threat at at 108-27.5 (June 3 low).
  • Cash yields are currently mildly higher: 5s +.0159 at 4.4784, 10s +.0256 at 4.4591%, 30s +.0277 at 4.5824%, while curves are running steeper: 2s10s +2.358 at -43.181, 5s30s +1.185 at 10.215.
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