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Tsys Back Near Midday Lows, Mixed Data, Shutdown Averted

US TSYS
  • Tsy futures remain weaker, near midday lows after attempting to rebound in the second half. Dec'23 10Y futures are at 107-11 (-23) vs. 107-07 low, 10YY at 4.6785% (+.1074) vs. 4.7014% high. Curves remain steeper: 3M10Y +9.262 at -79.260, 2Y10Y +4.686 at -42.976.
  • No delay in economic data this week after Congress passed a stopgap funding bill Saturday evening that will keep Federal agencies open through November 17, 2023.
  • Tsys extended lows after S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI comes out higher than expected (49.8 vs. 48.9 est). Fast two way trade was noted after ISM data.
  • Treasury futures extend early session lows (TYZ3 107-12.5) then rebound mixed ISM manufacturing came out higher than expected (49.0 vs. 47.8 est). ISM Prices Paid lower than expected (43.8 vs. 48.8 est), Employment higher: (51.2 vs. 48.5 prior) and New Orders (49.2 vs. 46.8 prior). in contrast, Construction Spending was in line with expectations at 0.5%.
  • Cross asset summary: Greenback remains strong (DXY +.731 at 106.905), Gold remains weak (-18.77 at 1829.86), crude weaker too (WTI -2.16 at 88.64). Stocks mixed, Nasdaq outperforming: up 21.43 points (0.3%) at 13240.75, DJIA down 201.42 points (-0.6%) at 33310.09, S&P E-Mini Future down 24.75 points (-0.57%) at 4302.
  • Limited data release Tuesday, focus on ADP early Wednesday ahead Fri's September Jobs data.

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