TTF Eases Back After Surge Higher on LNG Supply Concern

TTF extends is easing back after opening higher up towards 30€/MWh this morning. TTF surged higher yesterday on concern for tighter LNG supplies and potentially higher demand from Asia supported by the low prices. The move has brought the gas spreads back to favouring spot deliveries to Europe over Asia.

• TTF JUL 23 down -2.2% at 27.86€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -1.3% at 42.51€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.7% at 42.8€/MWh
• Total European LNG sendout has fallen back to around 350mcm/d and the lowest since March compared to an average of 443mcm/d during May.
• Prices are supported by potential for increased cooling demand with warmer than normal weather across Europe in the two week forecast although the south will be slightly cooler. German solar output is below the high levels seen last week while wind output remains low.
• Imports from Norway are still down at 226.1mcm/d today due to ongoing maintenance at numerous fields and processing plants which is expected to continue into mid June.
• European gas injections remain below normal but total storage is now up to 70.13% full on 4 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 52.7%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 40.3mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are steady at 68.8mcm/d.