TTF Eases Back After Surging on LNG Supply Risks

TTF has pulled back after front month surged to a high of 37.59€/MWh yesterday driven by rising risks to shipping and offsetting the warm weather in December, strong wind power output in Germany, and healthy near-term supplies.

• TTF JAN 24 down -4.3% at 34€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -4.1% at 34.23€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -3.5% at 34.1€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 down -3.1% at 39.25€/MWh
• Companies such as BP and Equinor diverting their cargoes has sparked fears for supply passing through the key chokepoint. Three LNG carriers have diverted away from the Bab al-Mandab strait amid Houthi attacks on vessels in the region, according to Argus yesterday.
• Above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe are expected to continue until the end of December.
• European natural gas storage was down to 88.36% full on Dec 17 according to GIE data amid smaller than normal withdrawal rates and compared to the seasonal five year average of 77.3%.
• European LNG sendout was unchanged at 407mcm/d on Dec 17 but remains below levels around 480mcm/d this time last year.
• Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway are up near the yearly high at 358.5mcm/d today.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are down slightly to 53.7mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday up at 357k.