TTF Extends Decline as Strong Supplies Offset Heating Demand

Front month TTF extends the weekly decline with high LNG imports and healthy storage levels offsetting the cool weather in NW and Central Europe this week. The latest weather forecast suggests temperatures could edge back up towards seasonal normal levels in the second week of the forecast.

• TTF APR 23 down -1.7% at 46€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 down -0.5% at 47.2€/MWh
• Weekly LNG imports have increased to the highest since December in the last week. Net flows into NW Europe were up at a new record of 356mcm/d on 28 Feb compared to a peak of 336mcm/d in December according to Bloomberg data.
• Strong Norwegian supplies and Russian flows back near to start of year levels are also adding to the healthy supplies and putting downward pressure on prices. Nominations today show flows from Norway at 338.8mcm/d while Russia gas transit via Ukraine is back up to the late 2022 and start of year level at 42.4mcm/d.
• European gas in storage is at 60.62% according to GIE data from 1 Mar compared to the five year average of 39.2%. Germany is at 68.91% full, Italy at 59.78%, Netherlands at 62.31%, Austria at 69.60% and France at 40.64%.