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TTF Extends Decline on Mild Weather and Norway Return

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month extends the pullback from a peak of 45€/MWh on 25 Sep driven by a lack of cold weather in the forecast combining with the return of Norwegian supplies.

    • TTF OCT 23 down -4.1% at 38.67€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -1.8% at 45.7€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -1.1% at 47.25€/MWh
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated back up slightly to 237.2mcm/d with further capacity coming back online this week. Outages are expected to fall from 121mcm/d today to 63mcm/d by the weekend according to Gassco.
  • The latest two week weather forecast is still showing above normal temperatures for the next week in NW Europe and has moved slightly warmer back just above normal into week two.
  • European natural gas storage is up to 95.08% full on 25 Sep according to GIE data with injection rates recovering this week and compared to the five year average of 86.55%.
  • LNG sendout to Europe is holding around 250mcm/d this week and below an average of 292mcm/d so far in September and around 370mcm/d this time last year.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are steady at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are still strong at 79.9mcm/d today.

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