TTF Extends Decline on Strong Supply and Warming Weather

TTF extends the decline with a warmer weather forecast for NW and central Europe, highs storage levels, strong LNG supplies, ongoing EU consumption reduction efforts and after a cautious 2023 growth target from China.

• LNG supplies into Europe dipped slightly on 3 March to 496mcm/d from near record levels of 524mcm/d on 2 March. The falling TF prices have driven the JKM-TTF spread back into positive territory after trading below zero mid last week.
• The US netback to Europe and Asia are back near parity for April with Europe at 10.4$/mmbtu and Asia at 10.19$/mmbtu. The netbacks for the remaining summer months are showing a premium to Europe of between 0.5 and 0.9$/mmbtu over Asia.
• NW Europe has received about 20 cargoes already this month with another 17 currently scheduled to arrive in the next couple of weeks.
  • TTF APR 23 down -6.1% at 42.22€/MWh
  • NBP APR 23 down -6.5% at 105.85p/th
  • JKM Apr 23 down -1.8% at 14.33$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Apr 23 up 0.4$/mmbtu at 0.99$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas APR 23 down -12.2% at 2.64$/mmbtu